EUR/USD 19/11

November 19, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar strengthened against most majors after weaker housing Data. Building Permits came out at 0.55M vs. 0.59M forecast and Housing Starts came out 0.53M versus 0.61M expected. The cost of living in the U.S. rose more than forecast in October as Americans paid more for fuel, while so-called core prices held at a pace that supports the Federal Reserve’s forecast for tame inflation, core CPI came out at 0.2% vs. 0.1% forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones declined by -0.48% and -0.11% respectively, Crude oil has risen for three days in a row closing at 79.58% a barrel, Gold (XAU) continued to rise trading above 1140$ level and closed at 1141.2$ an ounce. Today, Unemployment Claims are expected at 503K vs. 502K prior. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected with 12.3 versus 11.5.


EURO (EUR)

The Euro advanced against the Dollar as Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said past experience indicates policy makers may not start to raise interest rates until early 2012. Current account came out worse than expected with -5.4B vs. 0.6B forecast. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4857 and with a high of 1.4990. Today, ECB president Trichet will speak at the Euro50 Group Conference in Paris.


Resistance

1.4966

1.4993

1.5016

Support

1.4912

1.4824

 

WORLD FOREX NEWS 18/11

November 18, 2009

09:10 GMT: Gold hit another high on Wednesday but stock markets struggled to gain momentum as the dollar resumed its slide.

Bullion struck a new peak of $1,146.95, though it later traded up 0.3 per cent at $1,145.35 an ounce. It had advanced strongly late on Tuesday despite the dollar also gaining ground. The move challenged recent market convention that a weak dollar was good for riskier assets and vice versa.

However, in early trade on Wednesday, the dollar reverted to recent type, losing 0.3 per cent to $1.4922 versus the euro. On a trade-weighted basis the dollar was also off 0.3 per cent to 75.09.

Other commodities followed in gold’s wake. Copper moved back to near 14-month highs, up 1.1 per cent at $3.142 a pound, while oil was up 0.7 per cent at $79.69 a barrel. Inventory data on the energy complex will be released in the US later on Wednesday.

Stock market traders appeared more circumspect, however, after Wall Street managed to turn a loss into a small gain overnight. The S&P 500 added just 1 point to 1,110.3, though equity futures on Wednesday were suggesting it would lose that gain at the opening bell.

In Europe, equity trading was subdued. The FTSE 100 climbed 0.1 per cent to 5,351.3, while the FTSE Eurofirst 300 added 0.3 per cent to 1,032.7.

The apparent reticence to engage in an early “Santa Claus rally” and push equities to fresh highs for the year had led Asian markets to put in a mixed performance.

The Nikkei in Tokyo finished down 0.6 per cent at 9,676.8, a six-week closing trough, as worries about a potential bankruptcy for Japanese Airlines resurfaced. Sentiment was also affected by fears of further fund-raisings by financial institutions. There was one piece of good news, however. The yield on the the Japanese 10-year benchmark sovereign bond fell another 0.5 basis points to 1.310, thereby potentially easing funding woes for the fiscally-strapped government.

Mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite, added 0.6 per cent to 3,303.2, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.3 per cent to 22,840.3, after again popping above the 23,000 level.

South Korea’s Kospi index closed at a three-week high, rising 1.1 per cent to 1,603.9, ahead of President Barack Obama’s visit. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was firmer by 0.2 per cent at 4,739.0.

In government bonds, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield was up 1.8 basis points to 3.324 per cent. The German 10-year bund yield rose by 1.7 basis points to 3.298 per cent.

DATA WATCH. In the UK, the minutes of the last Bank of England monetary policy committee meeting will be scoured for any clues about the outlook for quantitative easing.

Investors want to see Federal Reserve monetary policy remain loose for longer, so any signs of surprising strength in inflation will be most unwelcome. The US consumer price index is forecast to have risen 0.1 per cent month-on-month in October. The yearly increase is expected to be 0.3 per cent.

US housing starts numbers will be released at the same time. Analysts think ground will have been broken on 600,000 units in October.

 

USD/JPY 18/11

November 18, 2009

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen gained versus the Euro and weakened versus the Dollar as risk appetite lowered after Industrial Production in the U.S came out weaker than expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.73 and a high of 89.53 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.44 and a high of 133.58. Today, All Industries Activity is expected with -0.1% versus 0.9% prior.


Resistance

89.65

90.00

90.18

Support

88.80

88.60

88.25

 

EUR/USD 18/11

November 18, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar gained versus most majors as Industrial Production came out weaker, lowering risk appetite. Industrial Production came out 0.1% versus 0.4% expected. PPI came out weaker with 0.3% versus 0.6% forecast. TIC Long-Term Purchases came out better with 40.7B versus 27.3B expected. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.27% and 0.29%. Crude gained by 0.68% closing at 79.44$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) remained almost unchanged with 0.16% change closing at 1140.5$ an ounce. Today, Building Permits are expected higher with 0.59M versus 0.57M prior and Core CPI is expected with 0.1% versus 0.2% prior. Housing Starts are expected higher with 0.61M versus 0.59M and Crude Inventories are expected with 1.2M versus 1.8M prior.


EURO (EUR)

The Euro weakened versus the Dollar and the Pound as risk appetite weakened and ECB\'s president Trichet said a strong Dollar is important for the world economy. European Trade Balance came out better than expected with 6.8B versus -0.9B expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4806 and with a high of 1.4998. Today, European Current Account is expected with 0.6B versus -1.3B prior. ECB President Trichet will speak in Frankfurt.



Resistance

1.4900

1.4925

1.4955

Support

1.4810

1.4740

1.4703

 

WORLD FOREX 17/11

November 17, 2009

 The global risky-asset rally was suffering a hangover on Tuesday following the exuberance of the previous session.

After hitting new highs for the year on Monday, European bourses opened lower, mimicking Asian stocks’ slide into the red, as commodity prices pulled back on a firmer dollar.

The FTSE 100 in London fell 0.3 per cent from its 13-month closing high to trade at 5358.5. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 was flat at 1034.1, with banks and real estate stocks struggling.

US equity indices had provided fresh impetus to early Asian trade after the S&P 500 index closed up 1.5 per cent at a new peak for 2009 on well-received retail sales numbers. However, profit-taking set in across much of the region as the dollar again showed signs of life.

The greenback had been volatile on Monday as traders reacted to comments from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, at one stage hitting a fresh 15-month low of 74.67 on a trade-weighted basis before bouncing a touch. On Tuesday the dollar was up 0.2 per cent at 75.07 and up 0.3 versus the euro at $1.4928 having again breached $1.50 in the previous session.

The dollar’s mini-revival took the wind out of the commodity rally. Gold retreated from Monday’s all-time high of $1,143.25 to trade down 0.5 per cent at $1,132.95 an ounce. Oil was down 0.6 per cent at $78.46 having flirted with $80 a barrel the day before. Copper dropped 0.6 per cent at $3.08 per/lb.

The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo fell 0.6 per cent to 9,729.5, with the yen’s strength – Y89.01 to the dollar, up 0.1 per cent – again damping sentiment.

Mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite, managed a rise of 0.2 per cent at 3,282.9, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.1 per cent per cent to 22,914.2. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gave up 0.5 per cent to 4,729 on weaker financials.

US equity futures currently point to the S&P 500 falling 3 points at the opening bell. Wall Street’s measure of investor anxiety, the Vix index, is sitting at 22.89 having fallen 2 per cent on Monday.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.7 basis points to 3.364 per cent, while the yield on Japan’s 10-year JGB fell 2.5bp at 1.315 per cent.

The UK government bond yield curve flattened after the data for consumer price inflation was published. CPI rose between September and October by 0.2 per cent , a touch stronger than expected. Yearly CPI hit 1.5 per cent. The 10-year gilt yield fell 2 basis points to 3.730 per cent. The more intrerest rate sensitive 2-year gilt saw its yield rise 2bp to 1.339 per cent. Sterling hit a two-month high versus the euro, rising 0.4 per cent to 88.63p.

 

JPY 17/11

November 17, 2009

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen gained versus the Dollar, Euro and the Pound as it Japan\'s economy showed the fastest growth pace in more than 2 years pulling Japan out of the recession. Tertiary Industry Activity came out weaker with -0.5% versus 0.1% expected and 0.3% prior. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.74 and a high of 89.72 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 133.18 and a high of 134.32. No major economic data is expected today.


Resistance

89.40

89.65

90.00

Support

88.75

88.60

88.25

 

EUR/USD 17/11

November 17, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar dropped versus the other after Fed Chairman Bernanke said interest rates would remain low to spur growth. Retail Sales came out at 1.4% better than 1% forecast but Core Retail Sales came out 0.2% worse than 0.4% forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones reached new 13 month highs with 1.38% and 1.45% gains respectively after Bernanke\'s speech. Crude gained by 3.3% closing at 78.87$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) jumped by 2.02% closing at 1140.4$ an ounce. Today, PPI is expected stronger with 0.6% versus -0.6% prior. TIC Long-Term Purchases are expected with 27.3B versus 28.6B prior. Industrial Production is expected with 0.4% versus 0.7% prior. FOMC Member Lacker will speak about his economic outlook at the State House Appropriation Committee in Richmond.


EURO (EUR)

The Euro gained versus the Dollar after Fed Chairman Bernanke commented the interest rates will remain low, spurring Risk Appetite. European CPI and Core CPI came out as expected with -0.1% and 1.2% respectively. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4880 and with a high of 1.5014. Today, European Trade Balance is expected with -0.9B versus 1B.


Resistance

1.5020

1.5050

1.5115

Support

1.4880

1.4825

1.4740

 

WORLD FOREX NEWS 16/11

November 16, 2009
he Dollar continued to weaken versus most majors as carry trade and risk appetite remained the main source for the Dollar's weakness. The Widening deficit in the Trade Balance and an unexpected drop in Michigan's Consumer Sentiment worried investors about the recovery but gains in stocks left risk appetite strong. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 2.62% and 2.46% respectively. Crude Oil declined by -0.98% the past week closing at 76.35$ a barrel after probably making a false break below 76$. Gold (XAU) continued making new highs closing at 1,118.41$ an ounce with a 1.8% weekly gain. Looking ahead, Retail Sales on Monday are expected stronger with 1% versus -1.5% prior as consumer spending rises. U.S CPI will be released on Wednesday and is expected with 0.1% versus 0.2% prior, CPI will reveal more information on the looming inflation.

The Euro gained by 0.4% versus the Dollar the past week keeping with the uptrend, but a failure to break above the 1.5050 level may signal a forming of a double top in the EUR/USD that could lead to sharp declines in the Euro. German Prelim GDP was released weaker than expected with 0.7% but still showed growth. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a high of 1.5047 and a low of 1.4820. Looking ahead, European CPI is expected unchanged with -0.1% and will be released on Monday. Trade Balance is expected with -0.9B versus 1B prior and will be released on Tuesday. German PPI is expected higher with 0.1% versus -0.5% prior on Friday.

The Pound gained 0.4% versus the Dollar after holding above key technical support levels. Fitch Ratings held a cautious outlook for the U.K and said the AAA credit rating is at risk. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a high of 1.6843 and a low of 1.6515. Looking ahead, CPI on Tuesday is expected stronger with 1.4% versus 1.1% prior. MPC Meeting Minutes will be released on Wednesday along with CBI Industrial Order Expectations. Retail Sales are expected stronger with 0.6% versus 0% prior on Thursday.

 

JPY/USD 16/11

November 16, 2009

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen gained versus most majors as a larger U.S trade deficit and weaker sentiment caused investors to favor the Yen as a safe haven. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 89.46 and a high of 90.41 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 132.84 and a high of 134.45. Today, Tertiary Industry Activity is expected with 0.1% versus 0.3% prior.



Resistance

90.00

90.20

90.40

Support

89.45

89.30

89.00

 

EUR/USD 16/11

November 16, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar weakened versus most majors after gains in stocks and the Trade Balance that showed a deficit of -36.5B wider than -31.8B expected. Michigan\'s Consumer Sentiment came out worse than expected dragging the Euro and Pound lower, but stock market gains pumped risk appetite back up. NASDAQ and Dow Jones gained by 0.88% and 0.72% respectively as better earnings and company mergers led to gains. Crude declined by -0.77% closing at 76.35$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) resumed gaining with 0.91% rise closing at 1116.1$ an ounce. Today, Retail Sales are expected better with 1% versus -1.5% prior and Core Retail Sales are expected slightly worse with 0.4% versus 0.5% prior. Fed Chairman Bernanke and FOMC Member Kohn will speak today.


EURO (EUR)

The Euro gained versus the Dollar on Friday after gains in stock markets led risk appetite higher causing investors to ignore weak economic data. German Prelim GDP came out weaker with 0.7% versus 0.8% expected and European Flash GDP came out 0.4% versus 0.6% expected. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4824 and with a high of 1.4937. Today, European CPI and Core CPI are expected unchanged with -0.1% and 1.2% respectively.


Resistance

1.4955

1.4985

1.5015

Support

1.4825

1.4800

1.4710


 

Recent Posts